‘Super El Niño’ Could Make Arizona's Already Brutal Summers Even Worse, Climate Scientists Warn
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Experts say that Arizona this year is likely to see more of the record-breaking heat, deadly flooding and intense wildfires that have marked recent summers — and it could be even worse, thanks to the strong El Niño expected.
“It has been one of the biggest weather stories we have seen,” Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central told reporters Wednesday about the “Super El Niño” that has been forming in the Pacific Ocean. Winkley, along with other climate scientists, spoke with reporters as part of a panel put on by Climate Action Campaign.
El Niño is the term used for a climate pattern that forms in the Pacific Ocean associated with warming of ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific that impacts weather worldwide. A strong El Niño is often associated with dryer and warmer conditions in the northern United States, while causing increased flooding in the Gulf region and Southeast.
The El Niño currently forming is breaking all records and could be the largest ever, potentially creating unprecedented weather extremes. The last significant El Niño was in 2023, which saw record-breaking summer heat; those records were later shattered in 2024 when the max temperature in Phoenix sat at or above 100 degrees for approximately 30% of the year.
Forecasts for this summer show that the state is likely to experience drier and hotter temperatures, with a potential for increased precipitation towards the tail end of the summer.
“We are waiting on pins and needles to see how this comes together,” Michael Crimmins, a climate science professor at the University of Arizona, told reporters, adding that the precipitation outlooks have offered a “little hope.”
While the predictions suggest that Arizona could see higher precipitation in June, July and August, Crimmins said he believes that it is likely to be delayed to late August or early September, based on his analysis of past El Niño years.