Patrick Bunn

Dr. Bunn leads the Power Forecasting Group (PFG) that provides high-resolution weather and power forecasts for electric utility companies in the Southwest United States. The group serves forecasts for 4.5 gigawatts of renewable power (solar and wind generation) across Arizona and New Mexico that extend from 5 minutes ahead through to +7 days, with a temporal resolution of 5 minutes. Power forecasts help end-users to improve energy market trading strategies for the Western Energy Imbalance Market, schedule more efficient generators, plan maintenance, and optimize battery energy storage systems. 

Renewable power forecasts are made using weather forecast data input into power systems models. The weather forecasts used by the group are from the weather forecast system "UA WRF" (weather.arizona.edu). Patrick also serves as principal investigator of the UA WRF weather forecast system, which operationally runs a customized configuration of the WRF model to deliver the highest resolution weather forecast information in the Southwest U.S., with a 1.8 km grid spacing. UA WRF is sponsored by and has served regional stakeholders for over a decade, including the National Weather Service Tucson and Phoenix, Pima County Regional Flood Control District, Arizona Department of Environmental Quality, ABC15 news, US Forest Service, and the three largest regional electric utilities, APS, SRP, and TEP.